Ukraine has become the litmus test of Russia’s policy towards its neighbors, and of the political will of Western democracies to make good on their promise of a Europe whole and free.
Up to now, only countries bordering Russia have really understood the insecurity of living in the shadow of a country set on restoring its empire, always mindful of Russia’s direct and indirect attempts to interfere in their internal relations.
Forced by the Yalta Agreements to accept new borders that brought with them non-indigent populations, countries, from the Baltics to the Caucasus, became subjected to relentless efforts by Soviet Russia to destroy their nationalism, their yearnings for freedom and democracy and their goal of integration in Western political, economic and security structures.
During the Cold War, these countries experienced sustained industrialization, colonization and Russification by Soviet Russia.
With the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation continues to use every method at its disposable to retain its influence in the “near abroad, primarily, by controlling and manipulating the large Russian populations in neighboring countries. Many Russian speakers have been carefully groomed as a “third column” to undermine, when necessary, the security and stability of their countries of residence.
Russia happily sows discontent among the Russian speakers living abroad by complaining about their human rights violations, as well as efforts to destroy their language and cultural identity. Russia openly supports, and surreptitiously, funds pro-Russian parties and politicians, and without provocation, declares readiness to “take all necessary action to defend ethnic Russians” wherever they may live. Can you imagine such pronouncements coming from Mexico regarding their nationals in Texas or New Mexico?
Russia’s control over its neighbors is also exercised regularly by saber-rattling maneuvers on their borders, illegal flights over non-Russian air space, long lines at border crossings, and “pop”boycotts of milk and fish products. Threats to cut gas supplies are a weapon of choice used by Russia not only against its neighbors, but the European Union as well. Add to this lethal mix the Putin-controlled media, particularly television, which broadcasts vicious and libelous stories about the treatment of ethnic Russians abroad.
The pro-Russia protests in Crimea, just as the war in Georgia, is being executed according to a scenario written by Russia since the end of the Cold War.
Up to now, Western democracies have willingly ignored Russia’s methods to control its neighbor, in effect giving Russia the green light to continue on a path of sustained interference. The blind side of Western foreign policy has been the belief that the end of the Cold War and the advent of the war on terror have put Russia on a path of liberal democracy and cooperation with the West. Nothing could be farther from the truth – Putin’s Russia is the same old Cold War Russia dressed in sheep’s clothing. Ukraine has painfully unmasked this deceit.
It is time for Western democracies to stand up to Russia’s bullying of its neighbors. Needless to say, the territorial integrity of Ukraine must be maintained, and Ukraine must be given all possible economic and technical assistance to recover from its massive economic and governance meltdown, perhaps on the model of a Marshall Plan.
Most important, the EU and US must restore their framework for formulating foreign policy initiatives to an earlier timeline when the balance of power mattered and democratic alliances were broadened and strengthened.
The events in Ukraine also provide ample proof that geopolitical interests have not disappeared and will continue to be a determining factor in foreign policy formulation.
Moreover, insidious soft power is to be feared as much as cold war power because it is often overlooked, underestimated and misunderstood, as it has been in post-Soviet space.
Finally, wars produce dangerous alliances – a hard lesson that is learned from World War II.
While the alliance with Soviet Russia was expedient for defeating Hitler, the betrayal of Eastern Europe as payback to Stalin was disproportionate to his investment in the war.
The same mistake must not be made by Western democracies when dealing with Russia over Ukraine.
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